Public Policy Polling (8/20-23, likely voters, 7/23-27 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 42 (40)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 39 (49)
Chris Cole (L): 5 (4)
Undecided: 13 (7)
(MoE: ±3.3%)
Boom! That’s the power of a DSCC moneybomb at work, people: 69% of voters say that they have seen the DSCC’s attack ads, and clearly it has helped push the needle big time here. Dole’s support among African-Americans has nearly halved, as well, to 14%, and Dole’s lead among whites is now only 10 points strong: 47-37.
There’s still plenty of time on the clock, but things must be getting tense at Dole’s campaign headquarters right about now.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
You can definitely feel that this race is turning toward us. I hope the DSCC can replicate their ad-effort from NC in other states, because those ads have definitely been their best ones.
Scott and his crew usually waste no time in doing a quickie overnight robo poll to counter any good news for the Dems.
isn’t the DSCC spending something like 8 million here. All they need is a few million more in Maine and I think its minnesota to have the same amount of money and potentially the same impact.
This is where the use it or lose it campaign becomes really really important. We have several senators sitting on large warchests and we’ve got to get that money to the DSCC. Can you imagine the damage we can do to Republicans if we can start spreading significant money into the lower tier races? If we can do that, not only is 60 no longer barely within reach, its probable.
The latest polls in this race:
SUSA: 41 – 46 Dole advantage
Insider
Advantage: 40 – 40
Civitas: 41 – 44 Dole advantage
PPP: 42 – 39 Hagan advantage
Dole spent like $2mm on ads in June or July and is right back where she was before those started.
Except for Ted Stevens and John Sununu, and MAYBE, just MAYBE Norm Coleman, Dole is the most vulnerable incumbent.
I admit during last month I was getting scared as Dole’s huge ad buy was upping her lead, but now she is out of money.
According to NC state board the PPP overshot Democrat voters by a 5% margin, GOP voters by a 2% margin and undershot Independents by a 8% margin.
Adjusting for the NC stat boards registration info Hagan is still ahead 41.15% to 39.22%
One interesting thing is that Hagan only gets 67% of Dems. And leads Independents by 7%. Hagan still has a lot of Room to grow compared to Dole.
There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON the DSCC needs to spend $8 million in Maine. Thats a ridiculous amount of money for a small, cheap media state. Allen’s cadillac media budget is $3m — the DSCC shouldn’t have to spend an additional $1m to make this competitive. There is only 1 major media market — Portland — and a small market in Bangor and Presque Isle. If we can’t beat Collins with $4 million in media (and keep in mind, that Allen is not too far behind Collins in coh and that Maine should go for Obama by 10+ points), then we are never going to beat her or hold that seat until the year she retires. The DSCC’s money can be better spent in other states where we are competitive and where it is more expensive to keep it that way — Mississippi, Kentucky, Minnesota, and potentially Georgia and Kansas.
for hagan definitely. when at incumbent is polling in the mid-to-lower 40s that is deep danger because the voters know her very well and they hardly know hagan at all.
i expect dole to be firing a lot of brutal negative ads from here on in.